Multiple independent analyses have attempted to quantify the number of bitcoins mined by Satoshi Nakamoto during Bitcoin’s earliest months. The most cited research, originally conducted by Sergio Demian Lerner in 2013 and refined in subsequent years, identified a distinctive mining pattern that has become known as the “Patoshi pattern.”
Lerner’s analysis examined the ExtraNonce field in the coinbase transactions of early Bitcoin blocks. He discovered that a single dominant miner — presumed to be Satoshi — was responsible for mining a large proportion of blocks from Bitcoin’s launch in January 2009 through mid-2010. This miner exhibited consistent, identifiable characteristics that distinguished their blocks from those mined by others.
The original 2013 analysis estimated Satoshi’s holdings at approximately 1 million BTC. Lerner’s subsequent 2019 refinement of the methodology, using more sophisticated analysis of nonce patterns and block timestamps, adjusted the estimate to approximately 1.1 million BTC across roughly 22,000 blocks.
BitMEX Research conducted an independent review of Lerner’s methodology in 2018, broadly confirming the pattern but suggesting a somewhat lower estimate, noting that not all blocks attributed to the Patoshi pattern could be conclusively attributed to a single miner.
Whale Alert, a blockchain tracking service, published its own analysis corroborating an estimate of approximately 1.1 million BTC.
A critical observation across all analyses is that the vast majority of these coins have never been moved from their original mining addresses. As of early 2021, with Bitcoin’s price surpassing $40,000 for the first time, Satoshi’s estimated holdings were valued at over $40 billion, making the pseudonymous creator one of the wealthiest individuals in the world — on paper, at least. The untouched nature of these coins has become one of the most remarkable aspects of Bitcoin’s history.